11soccerdad
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 01:13 PM |
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best boys 4A programs over the past 3 years
Put together a point system for rating high school soccer programs (4A) over the past 3 years - assigned a value of each finish in the elite eight - 4
for state champs, 3 for runner up, 2 for semis, and 1 for quarters. Here are the results for 4A: Probably not too many surprises, but still some
fodder for the forum - hope you enjoy. Note: Only 5 teams have made it to at least the quarters for at least 2 of the 3 years covered here.
NC High School Men’s Soccer 4A
Top Teams 2007 to 2009
Rnk/ School/ Pts/ # Yrs Top 8/
1 G Hope/ 7/ 3/
2 M. Park */ 5/ 2/
3 Page */ 4/ 1/
3 Broughton */ 4/ 1/
3 N Hanover/ 4/ 2/
6 Pinecrest/ 3/ 2/
6 E Forsyth/ 3/ 2/
8 TC Roberson/ 2/ 1/
8 N Meck/ 2/ 1/
10 8 Tied/ 1/ 1/
Pts: 4,3,2,1 Champions, Finalist, Semis, Quarters
* 4A Champ
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VM
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 01:22 PM |
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Slow day at the offic e?
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Fonzie
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 01:53 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by 11soccerdad
Put together a point system for rating high school soccer programs (4A) over the past 3 years - assigned a value of each finish in the elite eight -
4 for state champs, 3 for runner up, 2 for semis, and 1 for quarters. Here are the results for 4A: Probably not too many surprises, but still some
fodder for the forum - hope you enjoy. Note: Only 5 teams have made it to at least the quarters for at least 2 of the 3 years covered here.
NC High School Men’s Soccer 4A
Top Teams 2007 to 2009
Rnk/ School/ Pts/ # Yrs Top 8/
1 G Hope/ 7/ 3/
2 M. Park */ 5/ 2/
3 Page */ 4/ 1/
3 Broughton */ 4/ 1/
3 N Hanover/ 4/ 2/
6 Pinecrest/ 3/ 2/
6 E Forsyth/ 3/ 2/
8 TC Roberson/ 2/ 1/
8 N Meck/ 2/ 1/
10 8 Tied/ 1/ 1/
Pts: 4,3,2,1 Champions, Finalist, Semis, Quarters
* 4A Champ
Interesting analysis, but considering the play-offs are not seeded, it is difficult to come up with an objective way to evaluate based on the play-off
system. There are plenty of teams that are fantastic that get eliminated in the first and second rounds due to no seeding, i.e. Jordan 2009.
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11soccerdad
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 03:44 PM |
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Understand your point, but I would suggest some of that is dealt with by covering a three year period. No system is perfect, but I feel this approach
is the best in terms of success in the state tournament, which is the best overall barometer of success for these teams. Bottonline - to get to the
quarters you have to have won 3 matches, and every team from there on in is solid, as show by scores/level of play at the quarter-final and beyond.
Yes some teams are going to lose early on based on seating, but they have three years in this model to show what they can do (by the way - Jordan, as
good as they were in 09, were not that strong in 08, or 07, which is born out in this approach).
For VM - it took about 20 minutes to do all the work and then cut an paste to here - which was done last night before posting. And this is were we
come to talk about high school soccer - so not so much is your answer! I always get a kick out of those who love to comment on post, but never want
to get the conversation started. Isn't that why we come here to talk about the great game at the high school level?
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Well Duh
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 04:03 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by Fonzie
Interesting analysis, but considering the play-offs are not seeded, it is difficult to come up with an objective way to evaluate based on the play-off
system. There are plenty of teams that are fantastic that get eliminated in the first and second rounds due to no seeding, i.e. Jordan 2009.
totally agree
1. never liked ratings that are based upon single event outcomes, they ignore the "body of work"
2. the lack of seeding makes the State Championship a bit of russian roulette and not all guns have the same # of bullets
For not being very strong Jordan ended up ranked in the final rankings on the Eurosport Scorboard for 09 (#4), 08 (#13) and 07 (#18)
if you use Eurosport which ranks teams on season AND state championship....how do programs stack up?
Disclaimer " I am not calling anyone a name with this post"
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Fonzie
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 04:24 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by 11soccerdad
Understand your point, but I would suggest some of that is dealt with by covering a three year period. No system is perfect, but I feel this approach
is the best in terms of success in the state tournament, which is the best overall barometer of success for these teams. Bottonline - to get to the
quarters you have to have won 3 matches, and every team from there on in is solid, as show by scores/level of play at the quarter-final and beyond.
Yes some teams are going to lose early on based on seating, but they have three years in this model to show what they can do (by the way - Jordan, as
good as they were in 09, were not that strong in 08, or 07, which is born out in this approach).
For VM - it took about 20 minutes to do all the work and then cut an paste to here - which was done last night before posting. And this is were we
come to talk about high school soccer - so not so much is your answer! I always get a kick out of those who love to comment on post, but never want
to get the conversation started. Isn't that why we come here to talk about the great game at the high school level?
It is an interesting analysis, but I'd look at a longer period rather than 3 years. 3 years "could" just be 3 years of the SAME great players. A
longer period of time would be a better indicator of the program. 5-10 years, maybe. Then you'll see how good a program, a coach, a philosophy really
is.
I'd assume Apex would then fall into that conversation, as would Broughton, N. Meck, Green Hope, etc.
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91futbolpop88
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 08:09 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by VM
Slow day at the offic e?
I expect it took several days to come up with a way to put Pinecrest in the Top 10 in the state...
Serenity Now!
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Jetstream
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 09:41 PM |
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The best program is the one that helps to graduate the most kids.
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tcr
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 09:54 PM |
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how can we, tc roberson, even be considered for this when we have only played 1 season in 4a.
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Wildkat
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| posted on 2/8/10 at 10:14 PM |
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Because TCR can translate the lingo to the kids at Roberson.
1 year in 4A making it to the State Semi-final says enough for me!
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SoccerDadx2
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| posted on 2/9/10 at 07:51 AM |
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To quantify a measure of success in any high school sports program is going to be open to debate, because there are so many outside factors that can
effect it:
- since there is no recruiting (technically) and not counting private schools that compete in NCHSAA, then coaches have to work with whatever bodies
district assignments provide them (some are just going to be more well off than others, and this will fluctuate over time regardless of all other
factors).
- related to the above, there are going to be the situations where traditionally strong programs become self-fulfilling (parents of promising young
athletes in a given sport move into that school's attendance zone, possibly out of another school where that player staying put could have made a big
difference there). That's an easy way to develop a public school dynasty, when the studs keep showing up on your doorstep.
- also related to above, the unknown impact of redistricting (e.g., Panther Creek started off strong in soccer when it opened 4(?) years ago,
primarily drawing players from, and somewhat diminishing, strong programs at Green Hope and Apex ... not losing those players could have made a
difference in their recent results)
- coaching changes always have the potential to alter a program's potential ... either positively or negatively.
- injuries to key players ... maybe not as impactful in soccer (though losing a high scoring striker to a season-ending injury is going to have some
effect on possible potential outcome).
- just about any other event that impacts a school program ... e.g., on the girls' side with CASL fielding HS Spartan Elite teams in the spring
(assuming those girls opt out of playing for their high school teams, those coaches will have to fill holes in their lineups that I'm sure they
weren't expecting after last year). Related to this, I believe one of the top female recruits coming out of NC this year never played a minute for
her HS team ... I have to imagine she would have made a very positive impact to that program.
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11soccerdad
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| posted on 2/9/10 at 09:51 AM |
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now a 10 year review would be interesting, but time consuming. Also EUROSPORT only has data back to '06 I believe. so you'd have to find another
source for 99 to 05.
Again the point of this was to come up with some totally objective evaluation, understandidng that no system is perfect. What else are you going to
use - team records, conf. championships? Each of these has more flaws than this approach.
Got a better analysis - do the work and lets see it and then get ready to pull the arrows out of your back!
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11soccerdad
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| posted on 2/9/10 at 10:04 AM |
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as far as eurosport end of season rankings go - semi-finalist are 1-4 and then from there records have some impact, but in most cases the
quarterfinalist all make the top 10. So the answer to your question is - if you used that ranking instead - it would change very little as the big
points are for 1st to 4th place which are accounted for in my analysis. If you want to try that I would use top 10 and assign values 10 -1
accordingly, and remember you only have data back to 06. Good luck!
And by the way - no knock on Jordan, just stating that like many good teams - to make this list you had to perform at a very high level for the last
three years.
By the way I'd take any of the top 5 teams on the list any day against any other team in the state in a pool and do very well. These guys were all
good and deserve the top billings from where I sit! They all beat quality teams in the tough state championship format, and after all that is what
these kis play for all year long.
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Pinecrest_Patriot
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| posted on 2/12/10 at 09:32 PM |
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Quote:Originally posted by 91futbolpop88
Quote:
Originally posted by VM
Slow day at the offic e?
I expect it took several days to come up with a way to put Pinecrest in the Top 10 in the state...
It only took 4 games this past season to do so...
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91futbolpop88
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| posted on 2/13/10 at 03:18 PM |
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Quote:Originally posted by Pinecrest_Patriot
Quote:Originally posted by 91futbolpop88
Quote:
Originally posted by VM
Slow day at the offic e?
I expect it took several days to come up with a way to put Pinecrest in the Top 10 in the state...
It only took 4 games this past season to do so...
You've convinced yourselves, but that doesn't make it true.
In the same 3-year time frame, Pinecrest ventured into Cap-7, Tri-9, and Pac-6 land 12 times.....and came away with a record of 2-9-1.
I've said many times that I think Pinecrest has a great program, and one of the best atmospheres around.
Top 10?....No. Strength of schedule matters. You have to consistently beat top-level teams to claim that lofty position.
Serenity Now!
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Big V
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| posted on 2/13/10 at 08:57 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by 11soccerdad
Put together a point system for rating high school soccer programs (4A) over the past 3 years - assigned a value of each finish in the elite eight -
4 for state champs, 3 for runner up, 2 for semis, and 1 for quarters. Here are the results for 4A: Probably not too many surprises, but still some
fodder for the forum - hope you enjoy. Note: Only 5 teams have made it to at least the quarters for at least 2 of the 3 years covered here.
NC High School Men’s Soccer 4A
Top Teams 2007 to 2009
Rnk/ School/ Pts/ # Yrs Top 8/
1 G Hope/ 7/ 3/
2 M. Park */ 5/ 2/
3 Page */ 4/ 1/
3 Broughton */ 4/ 1/
3 N Hanover/ 4/ 2/
6 Pinecrest/ 3/ 2/
6 E Forsyth/ 3/ 2/
8 TC Roberson/ 2/ 1/
8 N Meck/ 2/ 1/
10 8 Tied/ 1/ 1/
Pts: 4,3,2,1 Champions, Finalist, Semis, Quarters
* 4A Champ
Here we go again!!! Some folks simply get stuck in analysis paralysis and have very conveniently resulted in Green Hope called number 1. Why don't
you go back more years with the stupid data and give Broughton credit for the Championship and North Meck the points for finalist?
I have said it before and I'll say it again using stats to claim ANY club or school is best is simply silly!!!
[Edited on 2-13-2010 by Big V]
Stuff Happens....Chill !
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Big V
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| posted on 2/13/10 at 09:00 PM |
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Quote:
Originally posted by Jetstream
The best program is the one that helps to graduate the most kids.
Amen !!!
Stuff Happens....Chill !
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a dad
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| posted on 2/13/10 at 10:48 PM |
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Quote:Originally posted by 91futbolpop88
Quote:Originally posted by Pinecrest_Patriot
Quote:Originally posted by 91futbolpop88
Quote:
Originally posted by VM
Slow day at the offic e?
I expect it took several days to come up with a way to put Pinecrest in the Top 10 in the state...
It only took 4 games this past season to do so...
You've convinced yourselves, but that doesn't make it true.
In the same 3-year time frame, Pinecrest ventured into Cap-7, Tri-9, and Pac-6 land 12 times.....and came away with a record of 2-9-1.
I've said many times that I think Pinecrest has a great program, and one of the best atmospheres around.
Top 10?....No. Strength of schedule matters. You have to consistently beat top-level teams to claim that lofty position.
Amen. i watched Pincrest lose 5-0 to a Tri-8 team and it was not even that close. I do not believe they had a shot on goal all game. The only
reason they went as far as they did in the playoffs is who they played and how the seeding was done. Using that to rate the teams is a flat joke.
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The Village Idiot
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| posted on 2/13/10 at 11:27 PM |
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I am enjoying this fantastic discussion about HS soccer.
I stared at goats.
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